Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Revisiting the 2010 Draft: Right Handed Relievers

Will continue this segment with the RHR.

Right Handed Relievers (2010 Grade)
1 - Dan Klein (UCLA) - 55 Grade, Set-Up
Klein received some pre-draft buzz as a potential convert to starter candidate, but I thought the max effort delivery would fit better in the pen.  Klein put up good pro numbers before going down with a tear in his labrum, which is a big injury that is difficult to come back 100 % from.
2 - Jordan Swagerty (Arizona State) - 55 Grade, Set-Up
I thought Swagerty would move quick to the majors with an above avg FB and plus SL.  He was in line to move quickly, reaching AA in his draft season, only to have succumbed to Tommy John surgery this year.
3 - Robert Morey (Virginia) - 55 Grade, Set-Up
I thought More fit best in the pen thanks to his smaller frame and some durability concerns.  Morey is still starting and put decent numbers in the FSL this year, going 8-3, 3.84 w/ 29 BB v 57 K in 89 IP.  Will be interesting to see what role he has in AA next year.
4 - Geoff Parker (Florida State) - 55 Grade, Set-Up
Parker made his transition to the pen for the first time this year (thought he fit better there due to mechanics and his stuff played better at FSU in short stints) and pitched ok.  He topped out in the Cal League with 65 K and 24 BB in 69 IP.  Probably more of a middle reliever potential.
5 - Addison Reed (San Diego State) - 50 Grade, Middle Reliever
Not seeing Reed when he was closing really hurt me as I tried to evaluate him, as he was 86-91 as a starter and it was difficult to project that much more velo coming as a reliever.  Reed had a successful major league debut and profiles more as a 2nd tier closer or setup man then a middle reliever.
6 - Chance Ruffin (Texas) - 50 Grade, Middle Reliever
I thought Ruffin had the upside of a potential setup man, but didn't see enough FB velo to project him there, seeing more of an avg FB at 91-92.  Ruffin has had a few cup of coffees, but hasn't been able to stick yet (mainly due to command issues, which is a surprise).
7 - Jimmy Nelson (Alabama) - 50 Grade, Middle Reliever
Nelson is still starting, but I have seen him in person a few times since his amateur days and still think he is a better fit as a reliever (on the strength of a hard sinker) then a starter.  He made it up to AA, where command problems did him in (2-4, 3.91 w/ 37 BB v 42 K in 46 IP)
8 - Aaron Barrett (Ole Miss) - 50 Grade, Middle Reliever
Barrett had a fairly underwhelming first 2 years, before exploding onto the scene this year, compiling 73 K in 51.2 IP with only 14 walks over 2 A ball levels.  I will get to see him in the AFL this year and am excited to see what adjustments he has made and if he is still working with a plus SL.
9 - Matt Miller (Michigan) - 45 Grade, 4-A Reliever
I thought Miller had the raw tools to have the upside of a set-up man, but I was concerned with how he would come along with command and smoothing out the delivery.  He is being developed as a starter, and while his command is better, I haven't seen the pure stuff I saw at Michigan, as he is more of your typical right handed starter now.
10 - Tyler Burgoon (Michigan) - 45 Grade, 4-A Reliever
Thought Burgoon would work with 2 above avg pitches in his FB and SL and just needed to refine how he utilized these pitches.  He had a good year in a tough place to pitch, posting a 3.25 ERA in 53 G and striking out 80 in 63 IP vs. 31 BB.
11 - Michael Palazzone (Georgia) - 45 Grade, 4-A Arm
Figured he was a better fit in pro ball as a reliever, but he had value to an organization as an innings eater.  He ended up not signing in 2010 and hasn't appeared to make a pro appearance yet.
12 - Thomas Royse (Louisville) - 45 Grade, 4-A Arm
Royse was similar to Palazzone except with better pure stuff and more delivery concerns.  Royse was returning from Tommy John and hasn't yet made it out of rookie ball, though 2013 will hopefully be his first healthy season.
13 - Merrill Kelly (Arizona State) - 45 Grade, 4-A Arm
Another guy that I thought could eat innings early in his career then go into a swingman type role, I was concerned that he wouldn't be able to develop a usable breaking ball to go with his FB-CH mix.  Kelly has reached AA and worked in the swing role at Montgomery, going 8-3, 3.57 w/ 28 BB v 61 K in 88.1 IP.
14 - Colin Bates (North Carolina) - 45 Grade, 4-A Reliever
Bates put up decent numbers in the SAL this year, but only struck out 36 in 51 IP and doesn't appear to have the plus SL I thought he had at UNC.
15 - Andrew Robinson (Georgia Tech) - 45 Grade, 4-A Reliever
Thought Robinson would work with an above avg FB and refine his CB into an avg offering while struggling to command his repetoire.  Made the transition to the pen at Lancaster and put up decent numbers, appearing in 44 games and going 4-5, 4.33 w/ 74 K and 26 BB in 60 IP.
16 - Blake Cooper (South Carolina) - 45 Grade, 4-A Arm
Saw Cooper more as a reliever and a guy who would get a cup of coffee in the big leagues after eating innings in the low minors as a starter.  He never started in the minors, transitioning to the pen immediately after signing and put up 59 K in 56 IP at Visalia this year.
17 - Matt Bischoff (Purdue) - 40 Grade, ROOGY
Bischoff compiled some massive K numbers as Purdue's Friday night starter and thought he had a chance as a ROOGY.  He pitched most of the year at High A and put up 28 K and 6 BB in 28 IP.
18 - Matt Hutchison (UNLV) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I actually liked Hutchison and, while I didn't think he had a better then avg pitch, had a good enough repetoire and body to potentially profile as a cup of coffee pitcher.  He got cut after his first pro season.
19 - Tyler Lockwood (TCU) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I thought Lockwood had 3 avg pitches, but wouldn't develop the command to be able to harness them.  His command has improved in pro ball and reached High A this year, but compiled just 54 K in 73 IP.
20 - Jeff Walters (Georgia) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I thought Walters would work with an above avg FB and 2 fringy off-speed offerings.  He pitched well in Low A this year before getting the bump to High A and pitching more to his ability (3.76 ERA in FSL).  Overall, struck out 49 v 12 BB in 54 IP.
21 - Mike McGee (Florida State) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Thought McGee had 2 solid avg offerings that might have been able to work as a reliever.  He didn't sign this year and appeared to take a step back as a pitcher his senior year and was popped as an OF, where I also thought he should have been drafted.
22 - Justin Poovey (Florida) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Poovey ended up not signing (this was his first year back from Tommy John) and got lost in the plethora of arms at Florida.  His command never did come back from the surgery.
23 - Daniel Renken (Cal State Fullerton) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Renken is still starting and got hammered as a sinker pitcher in the CAL this year, posting a 6-9, 5.93 record with 57 BB v 125 K in 142.2 IP.
24 - Willy Kesler (New Mexico) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I really wanted to like Kesler, but saw only 2 potential avg pitches with a below avg CH and a mature body.  He appeared to get cut this year after surrending 40 hits in the CAL in 28 IP.
25 - Matt Little (Kentucky) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Thought Little had upside as a ROOGY once he focused on that slot.  Haven't seen him, but put up decent numbers in the FSL with 56 K in 57 IP, though he also walked 30.
26 - Neil Holland (Louisville) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Holland was another ROOGY type, without the pure stuff of a Little or those who ranked ahead of him.  He had a big year in High A this year, putting up a 1.64 ERA with 14 BB v 44 K in 60 IP.
27 - Tyler Wilson (Virginia) - 35 Grade, AA Top Out
He came back to college in 2011 and excelled as a starter, despite featuring a max effort delivery.  I had him with an above avg SL in 2010, but little else.  He is still starting (threw a 50 on him as a reliever for 2011) and had a big year at High A, going 7-7, 3.49 w/ 19 BB v 114 K in 111 IP.
28 - Kevin Moran (Boston College) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Moran was an arm strength guy to me who had little else to bring to the table, working 93-94.  He didn't throw much this year and has been pretty ineffective in pro ball, compiling a 7.03 career ERA.
29 - Parker Bangs (South Carolina) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Bangs was a guy who I thought could take off once he focused on pitching, as he featured a FB up to 95.  Didn;t turn out that way and got released.
30 - Kevin Arico (Virginia) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Arico intrigued me with a plus SL, but didn't think his arm would hold up and he lacked the deception to generate consistent swings and misses.  Arico got hurt and is working his way back.
31 - Stephen McCray (Tennessee) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
McCray was a sum of his parts pitcher as opposed to one with an above avg pitch.  Pitched in a swingman role this year at High A and experienced success, going 9-3, 3.30 w/ 43 BB v 91 K in 117 IP.
32 - David Gutierrez (Miami) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
A guy who was more of a future buy and didn't have an avg pitch and projected to be a sum of his parts pitchers, he got cut after his first pro year despite putting up good numbers.
33 - Kevin Cahill (Purdue) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
I thought Cahill had decent raw stuff, but lacked the body or command and I had some injury questions about him.  He ended up getting cut after his first pro year despite putting up decent numbers.
34 - Jordan Pratt (Arkansas) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
I wrote that Pratt was likely to blow out in my report due to a violent delivery.  Even though I liked his SL, hard to pop a reliever like that.  He ended up getting cut in 2011.
35 - John Leonard (Boston College) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Leonard ended up not signing and put up more of the same in his senior year.  Thought he fit better in a pen with a fringy FB and above avg CB (he got a 30 grade from me in 2012).  He has not made a pro appearance.
36 - Tommy Toledo (Florida) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Toledo received the same grade from me in 2011 when he returned for his senior year.  He threw the ball well in Low A this year before getting hit hard in High A as a 23 year old.
37 - Matt Campbell (Florida) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Campbell was cut this year after compiling a 5.60 ERA in 23 games at Low A.
38 - Greg Holle (TCU) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Holle was a guy with an intriguing sinker at 87-92, but never thought he would learn the command.  Having seen him in person since this report, I would agree with it and think he is still just an org guy.
39 - Mike Bolsinger (Arkansas) - 35 Grade, Org Depth
Bolsinger had minimal upside to me and was just org filler.  He actually put up good #'s this year as a starter, going 7-5, 3.35 w/ 51 BB and 113 K in 115 IP across High A and AA.
OTHERS (Below are players I wouldn't have drafted)
Zach Neal (30 Grade) - Threw the ball real well this year (including a 1.21 ERA in High A) and pitched his way to AA.
Scott Matyas (30 Grade) - Cut in 2011.
Jeremy Heatley (30 Grade) - Let go after his first pro year despite good stats.
Drew Hayes (30 Grade) - Threw the ball well in AA and has a chance at a future based on his K numbers, though I have seen him in person since this report and still don't see a big league future there.  Nevertheless, has outperformed this grade.
Paul Gerrish (30 Grade) - Let go after his first pro year despite good stats.
Jeremy Erben (30 Grade) - Putting up big K numbers with little in way of peripherals.  In High A this year, put up 68 K v 26 BB in 48 IP.
Shawn Tolleson (25 Grade) - Now a big leaguer.  I can say from working with the Dodgers it is a completely different pitcher then the one I evaluated.  The important thing I took from this was to never overlook what a guy was in high school, especially when they have the injury problems Tolleson did.
Chris Squires (25 Grade) - Pitched his way to AA, where he got hammered, but had a strong year in the FSL.
Patrick Schatz (25 Grade) - Released after struggling in his first pro year.
Chase Reid (25 Grade) - Pitched his way to AA this year where he got knocked around a bit.
Taylor Hill (25 Grade) - Came back for his senior year, where he was a much improved pitcher and earned a 45 grade from me as a starter.  Pitched his way to High A as a starter this year, though he didn't experience a great year overall.
Ben Rowen (20 Grade) - Underestimated how much deception came from his delivery, as he hasn't put up an ERA over 2 in pro ball and put up some eye popping numbers in High A (3 BB v 52 K in 57 IP)

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