Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Revisiting The Draft: 2010 Right Handed Starters

One of the better exercises, now that I have established writing reports, is looking at what I thought of players as amateurs and seeing if it holds true as the players develop. 

Right Handed Starters (2010 Grade)
1 - Jesse Hahn (VA Tech) - 60 Grade, # 2 starter projection
Hahn finally made his pro debut after he was ravaged by injuries leading up to his draft year and was very good for Hudson Valley, going 2-2, 2.77 w/ 55 K and 15 BB in 52 IP.  I spoke with a scout friend of mine who said he turned in Hahn as a 60, which obviously makes me feel better.
2 - Sam Dyson (South Carolina) - 60 Grade, # 2 starter projection
I knew Dyson would move quickly to the big leagues as a reliever (made his MLB debut this year), but I thought there was a chance he could start.  I am fairly certain that if I had seen his medicals, I would have changed my mind from what I heard about them, which would have obviously altered my grade.
3 - Matt Harvey (North Carolina) - 55 Grade, # 2 or # 3 starter projection
Harvey has obviously had an electric debut and my ranking appears to be below what it should have been.  Looking back at my report, I was concerned with his ability to develop command and the style of pitcher he was.  Needless to say, the # 2 projection appears to be more apt for him.
4 - Brandon Workman (Texas) - 55 Grade, # 3 starter
I was bullish on Workman thanks to him possessing 2 plus pitches in my eyes coming out, his FB and CB.  I also projected his cutter to be fringy to solid avg.  Workman had a strong year this year after a less then stellar full season debut.  This year, he went 10-8 across 2 levels with a 3.50 ERA and 130 K against 25 BB in 138 innings.  Would say, without having seen him as a pro, that he is still in line to be a # 3 starter.
5 - Deck McGuire (Georgia Tech) - 55 Grade, # 3 Starter
McGuire is making me look like a moron.  On my report, I mentioned how he was near MLB ready and this is a distinction I don't give out easily (for instance, I gave it out to Trevor Bauer from 2011 after seeing him live and gave it out to Steven Rodriguez from this year).  McGuire, from all accounts, has taken a massive step back in both stuff and command.  It will be interesting to see if he can salvage what was a lost year (5-15, 5.88 in AA with 62 BB and 97 K in 144 IP)
6 - Mathew Price (Virginia Tech) - 55 Grade, # 3 Starter
Price was a personal favorite of mine and I probably undervalued his frame, as I think back to what his frame was and he may not have been able to support as much weight as I thought he could put on it.  Price has also been dealing with significant off the field issues that I can't disclose here.  This appears to be a miss and I hope that some of his issues are things I could have learned from him from building a personal relationship.
7 - Erik Goeddel (UCLA) - 55 Grade, # 3 Starter
Goeddel was one of the few potential converts (from relieving in college to starting in pro ball) that I liked due to a quiet delivery and the chance for 3 above avg or better pitches.  Checking in on him now, he appears to be making slow and steady progress, as he went 5-6, 3.41 in the FSL with 43 BB and 98 K in 108.1 IP.  Those stats tend to point towards more of a back end starter then a middle of the rotation starter however.
8 - Anthony Ranaudo (LSU) - 55 Grade, # 3 Starter
Ranaudo was a guy who was hurt for significant portions of his season, but I thought I saw enough for a middle of the rotation guy.  He had a lost year this year however and his command has never really come back.  Will be interesting to see what he becomes.
9 - Justin Grimm (Georgia) - 50 Grade, # 3/4 Starter
I was a huge Grimm fan coming out, as I believed he had one of the best CB's in the draft and an explosive FB.  He made his MLB debut this year and I still think the grade I gave then is where he likely slots in a rotation.
10 - Seth Blair (Arizona State) - 50 Grade, # 4/5 Starter
Blair was a guy who I thought would fit well as an innings eating guy in the back of a rotation, not unlike a Joe Blanton type.  I thought he had above avg command of a solid avg 3 pitch mix, but that command has not shown itself in pro ball where he has walked 78 (and struck out 83) in 101 IP.
11 - Brandon Cumpton (Georgia Tech) - 50 Grade, # 4/5 Starter
Cumpton has quietly put up good numbers in the Pirates system and is heading to the Arizona Fall League this year where I get the opportunity to see him live as a pro for the first time.  In my report, I thought Cumpton would work with a plus FB/CB combo and a below avg CH.  Will be curious to see where he stacks up stuff wise.  In his AA debut, he went 12-11 w/ a 3.84 ERA and 46 BB v 88 K in 152.1 IP.
12 - Brian Dupra (Notre Dame) - 50 Grade, # 4/5 Starter
Dupra didn't sign when drafted this year and waited until 2011 to sign, where I didn't have velo's to evaluate him.  Dupra had a bad full season debut (3-4, 7.17 in SAL) this year and it appears I missed on him.
13 - Seth Rosin (Minnesota) - 50 Grade, # 4/5 Starter
Rosin was another guy I was high on and thought he had a good enough frame to start.  He appears to have been jerked around a bit by the Giants and was moved to the Phillies as part of the Hunter Pence deal, where they appear to be trying to make him a starter.  Will be interesting to watch how he develops in his new organization.
14 - Barrett Loux (Texas A&M) - 50 Grade, # 4/5 Starter
I thought Loux would profile as an innings eater in the back of a rotation.  He had a well-publicized split from the Dbacks and signed with the Rangers.  Loux had a solid AA debut this year, going 14-1 w/ a 3.47 ERA and 41 BB v 100 K in 127 IP.  Appears to be well on his way towards that projection.
15 - Cole Green (Texas) - 45 Grade, Emergency Starter
Green has run into some problems off the field since coming over and I have seen him in person to know that I missed on calling him an emergency starter, as he is a much better fit for me in the bullpen with his sinker/slider.  He will need to much better in 2013 then 2012 to get that chance though (19 games relieved in Low A, 1-0, 8.68 w/ 22 BB and 17 K in 28 IP)
16 - Alan Oaks (Michigan) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I really liked Oaks, but thought it was just an avg repetoire with no out pitch and not enough command to make up for it.  Oaks made it to AA, but had a rough 2012 with the Marlins, with an ERA over 6 at 2 different levels (Hi A and AA)
17 - Steven Maxwell (TCU) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
I thought Maxwell could help an organization with ability to eat innings, but he went down with a bad medical and has not surfaced in pro ball after returning to TCU after being drafted in 2010.
18 - Garett Claypool (TCU) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Claypool actually had a good pro debut as a starter (striking out 151 in 137 IP in 2011 at Lakewood), but came crashing down this year, going 3-2, 7.30 and striking out 43 v 15 walks in 37 IP (1 start in 20 appearances).  I preferred him as a starter b/c I didn't think there was an out pitch to get outs as a reliever.
19 - Jake Buchanan (North Carolina State) - 40 Grade, Org Depth
Buchanan received a lot of hype for succeeding in Lancaster the year before (and by virture of being in a weak system), and came back to earth a bit at AA this year, going 5-9, 4.96 w/ 83 K and 33 BB in 134 IP.  I would say he is quality org depth.
OTHERS (I would draft everyone graded over 35, below are the ones I wouldn't draft)
RHP Kevin Couture - 20 Grade, Non Prospect
Couture was a 32nd rounder by the Giants and pitched well this year ERA wise.  As a 24 year old reliever in the SAL.
RHP Brett Eibner - Incomplete
The only game I saw him he threw only FB's and didn't have enough to come to a conclusion.

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